Sometimes, it feels like it takes a Disney Ph.D. to figure out how to navigate the parks. What’s a Lightning Lane? Why does everything suddenly have a plus sign in front of it? Why on Earth is the line for Journey into Imagination with Figment over 5 minutes?
Helllooooo, crowds!
Oh, and on top of all those changes, you might also want to consider the crowd level during your vacation. Back in 2022, we saw some BIG crowds in the Disney World parks. The theme parks were reportedly in higher demand than ever before and attractions and restaurants were finally starting to operate like they did before the pandemic. Fast-forward to 2023, and things are looking a little different. Could the crowds finally be subsiding in Disney World? Let’s talk about it.
While we may not have a Mousters of Science in Disney World park attendance, we do visit the parks often enough to spot some trends. Based on previous patterns and the general attitude of Disney fans both in the news and on social media, we can make some educated guesses about Disney World’s park attendance. Of course, we’re just speculating here, but based on what we’ve seen (and heard) so far this year, let’s discuss five big reasons Disney World might be empty this summer.
Main Street. U.S.A in Magic Kingdom
First, let’s look at a pretty surprising piece of news that even DISNEY didn’t predict correctly.
Annual Pass Availability
In April 2023, Disney resumed Annual Pass sales. The passes were brought back with a word of warning from Disney itself; the same day that Annual Passes went back on sale, Disney added a statement to its website informing customers that Annual Passes could become unavailable (sell out).
©Disney
If you read down to the last line in Disney’s message, you can see that Disney itself predicted, “We anticipate a pass or select passes may become unavailable for purchase later today (April 20th, 2023).” Well, weeks later, all Annual Passes are still available for purchase.
©Disney
Note that the Sorcerer, Pirate, and Pixie Dust Passes are available exclusively for Florida residents, and the price varies based on blockout dates and park pass reservation availability.
©Disney
This is significant for two reasons. First, it’s interesting that Disney resumed Annual Pass sales this year. When Annual Passes were unavailable between 2021 and 2023, many speculated that Disney paused Annual Pass sales to assist with park capacity. Now that APs are up for sale, did Disney’s recent decrease in park capacity reignite new Annual Pass sales? In theory, more Annual Passholders equals more people in the parks, so perhaps Disney wants higher theme park attendance this year.
Disney World Annual Pass
Second, it’s telling that all four types of Annual Passes are still available. Per Disney’s statement, it seems like many people expected Annual Passes to sell out almost immediately, so the fact that passes have not sold out could indicate that demand is not as strong as Disney may have initially thought. (Or, on the flip side, Disney could have been using that type of language to intentionally create a sense of urgency to buy — we’ll never know for sure!)
Park Pass Availability
Now, let’s talk about what we’re seeing in the parks. Over the past few months, besides a few MAJOR holidays, Disney’s Park Pass availability has been wide-open at all four theme parks.
©Disney
Even the attraction wait times have been unusually low compared to last year. In fact, virtual queue availability for Magic Kingdom’s newest ride, TRON Lightcycle / Run, has remained open even HOURS after the queue opens.
TRON Lightcycle / Run
Thinking back to the grand opening of Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance, guests had to work hard to secure a virtual queue spot in line; meanwhile, TRON seems to be (relatively) easy to ride!
Rise of the Resistance draws some BIG crowds.
Of course, we see lulls in crowds pretty much every year, but if the current trend continues, we could see some EMPTY parks this summer.
Park Pass CHANGE
Speaking of Park Passes, did you know that they are going away for most guests in 2024? Disney shared that Park Pass Reservations will not be needed for those who have date-based park tickets. This change will take place starting January 9th, 2024.
Magic Kingdom
This HUGE news bomb could be attributed to softening crowds, as Disney might not feel the need to restrict park capacity due to large anticipated crowds.
Summer Discounts
Next, we can also look at the current deals and discounts to gauge how busy Disney anticipates the parks to be this summer. Currently, we’re seeing deals for pretty much EVERYONE, including Florida Residents, Disney Visa Cardmembers, Annual Passholders, and theme park guests.
Beach Club Resort
When we see promotions like these, we usually assume that Disney wants more people in the parks and resorts, so they start lowering the price to entice more visitors.
Disney Earnings Call Revelations
Finally, we can use a primary resource to determine the summer crowd level: Disney itself! In a recent earnings call, Disney CFO Christine McCarthy discussed theme park growth and park attendance. In reference to the Disney Parks revenue, she said, “Per cap growth was more moderate this quarter as we are comparing against the first full quarter of offering Genie+ and Lightning Lane at both parks in the prior year.” Translation: Things are slowing down.
Slinky Dog Dash
McCarthy also said, “Please keep in mind that in the back half of this fiscal year, there will be an unfavorable comparison against the prior year’s incredibly successful 50th-anniversary celebration at Walt Disney World,” adding, “We typically see some moderation in demand as we lap these types of events, and third quarter-to-date performance has been in line with those historical trends.”
The 100th Anniversary has replaced the 50th Anniversary celebration.
In short, Disney confirmed that demand in the parks is slowing down (and will continue to slow down) now that the 50th Anniversary is over. Shortly after the earnings call, the Disney stock price dropped quite a bit, proving that theme park attendance is a key indicator of how Disney is doing financially. As the year progresses, we’ll have to wait and see if park attendance jumps back up!
We may not have a crystal ball, but it’s safe to say that summer 2023 will be pretty different than summer 2022 and 2021 in Disney World. In the meantime, we’re always on the lookout for the latest Disney news, so stay tuned for more!
NO MORE PARK PASS RESERVATIONS For Most Disney World Tickets Starting in 2024!
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2022 was an anomaly.
The US opened up to the world after Covid and so you had TWO years of a South Americans and europeans waiting to come…those who had their 2020 and 21 holidays cancelled and rebooked, and those who decided to book in 2022 for that year.
Throw in Americans who may also have decided to stay in the US and go to Disney as opposed to visiting Europe still being ravaged from Covid
I would dearly LOVE to see an “empty” Disney park! (Never happening!)
Has it occurred to anyone at Disney that just maybe the attendance dtop has something to do with Disney’s political statements? Nobody wants politics on vacation.
I agree with Chris, however, Disney won’t take notice of their mishandling of sooo many things associated with Disney until it severely affects their pocketbook. They have been assuming they were above reproach because of the continued park activity. This might be a good wake up call for them to remember their customer base. Eventually they will realize they need us more than we need them!!
agree, empty or lull in crowds just not happening. its been impossibly crowded no matter what or what park, and will continue to be. not sure where they get their info. I wish there werent crowds but the way disney has this designed now is to make sure its horribly crowded. really cant enjoy anything anymore especially since they have made it so difficult.
Disney is in big time trouble. If they lower prices across the board and make Disney -Disney again. Bring back fast pass and periodic free dining. Etc They have literally cut off their nose to spite their face. Oh well.
Disney has changed no doubt, and while they have always been top heavy with management, they are now faced with rising costs due to cast member wages shooting way up. In the old days, it used to take 3 days to enjoy all of the attractions/rides at MK. The guests were challenged to see how many you could get under your belt in one day. Today, with breakdowns and excessive line waiting times and crowds, you are lucky if you can get to 10 or 12 in a single day. They high cost of doing business is causing Disney to mine for additional guests to fill the hotel rooms and restaurants, but at the same time, the high prices re keeping guests away from visiting every year or two to every 5 or 10 years. Plus the attraction thru-put is not what it used to be. Guests are having great difficulty in paying for a Disney vacation, while the guests with deep pockets are going someplace else to spend their money because the prices, guest services, perks and restaurants are not what they used to be. No more Spirit of Aloha translates down to more guests forced into Disney Springs which is already terribly over crowded.
I hate Disney’s politics, but I doubt that politics has anything to do with the lower crowds that are anticipated this summer. People only have so much money to spend, and many families blew their budget for the next 5 years on an expensive trip to Disney World in 2021 or 2022. They won’t be coming back for at least a few years. In addition, let’s face it. The customer experience in the parks has not exactly been great for many visitors the past couple of years. The park reservations, double-digit price increases, replacing the free FastPass+ with Genie+ and the paid ILLS, hard to come by dining reservations for low quality food, lack of character experiences, broken rides, etc. Many guests I spoke to during the last two years told me that they have no intention of returning to Disney any time soon. The felt that the experience was just not worth the price. We became so disenchanted with Disney that we stopped going to Disney movies, decided against booking a voyage at the Star Wars hotel or on DCL, booked a hotel at Universal instead of Disney for the Christmas and New Year’s holidays, purchased Universal and SeaWorld annual passes (a great investment by the way),etc. Disney could stand to take some measures to produce a great experience for ALL GUESTS. Disney might be pleasantly surprised when these measures bleed over into producing more profits for Disney beside just the parks.
I miss all the perks that have been taken away. It’s just not the magical experience it used to be. Pre-covid we could put a luggage tag on our suitcases when we checked in at the airport and we didn’t have to deal with our bags until they magically appeared in our resort room. Luggage tags and Magic bands were included free. The Magic Express that transported you from and back to the airport was included. 3 fast passes per day that you could book 60 days in advance were included. The dining plan was great because you didn’t have to see the money pouring out for each meal since it was paid for in advance. Services went away altogether and others now have charges added for Genie+ and individual rides. Park Hopper and you can’t hop until 2pm. We have gone 1-2 times a year for 13 years. Our last trip was 2022, 8 nights stayed in a 2 bedroom villa at AK – we were lucky if our room was cleaned every 3rd day. (We’re not DVC members). We paid $22k for the trip and for the first time, felt it wasn’t worth what we paid for! We’re taking a year or two break from Disney.
We are headed there in July with our two little ones for our first time. Really looking forward to it and wouldn’t mind seeing some decrease in crowds 🙂
WDW was complicated enough to plan BEFORE they introduced Genie and Genie +. I’d already spent years accumulating knowledge and skills to allow my family to get reasonable value out of an extremely expensive destination. The idea of having to start from scratch with all that AND be up every day before 7 to fight for slots to ride is not in the least bit attractive. The price of a Disney vacation means that only the reasonably affluent can really now afford it, the reasonably affluent tend to be fairly time-poor because of the work required to be that affluent. Spending months planning a tremendously expensive few days at Disney is not a great option compared to the luxury resort you can just turn up to and relax and enjoy for the same kind of money. It puts Disney in the “maybe next year” basket.
Great photo of Beach Club! “Home of the Oval” (long story…)
All here have valid points. I agree with Jack the most because we go to Disney and buy their products to be happy – it’s the happiest place on earth. Politics are the opposite of happy. Drinking beer is fun. Politics are the opposite of fun. I crave the variety of food available in WDW. Politics makes me nauseous…I could go on, but i’m starting to bore myself
American consumer debt is over $17T as Americans are using their credit cards to pay their everday bills. Disney is overpriced & now the cost of a trip to Europe.
The more Disney increases prices the more people they squeeze out
Why do you refuse to post my comments?
Disney Park at FL. Prices keep going up and I have r been there a few times before covid, not much fun, too crowded, hard to walk the large crowds
And even harder to wait sooooo long. I am not attributing Disney’s politics as decrease in crowds. I go to park for fun, now it is totally out of my price range .
Hi Gino. As I have explained, when comments are not approved it is for a number of reasons including, but not limited to insensitivity, inaccuracy, language, rumors, false information, etc. All comments must be linguistically appropriate for a wide audience, and generally not inflammatory or discriminatory in any way. Thanks!
I go to park for fun ,politics have nothing to do with it. Too high a price has everything to do with it.
I would never go in summer because it is way too hot and humid.
What is sad too, is that people vacation to disconnect and spend quality time together to make memories with their families. How can you do that when you are tethered to your device to make reservations for rides, ordering food, etc. It’s too stressful and makes me feel like I’m living in an Excel Spreadsheet while vacationing there. It’s not fun! I wish Disney would return to the good ol’ days of paper Fast Passes and Kiosks. Bring back the Magical Express and the Spontaneous Characters sightings. This WAS truly the “Magic” of the park.
It was definitely not empty last week (6/12) . In fact, Magic Kingdom on Tuesday was easily the busiest I’ve ever seen. Hollywood Studios on Thursday was also crazy busy.