We’re still coming off the tail of winter in Florida, but we’re looking ahead to some big weather we might see later this year.
Disney World is located in Orlando, Florida which can mean warm weather and sun — but it can also mean rain and storms. The 2021 hurricane season is less than 100 days away. So, we’re taking a look at some of the earliest predictions and what they mean for your Disney trip.
There might be a storm BEFORE the hurricane season starts.
The first prediction that some experts are sharing is that there may be a storm before the official start of the hurricane season on June 1st, according to The Weather Channel and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NOAA did note that the routine issuance of Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks will begin earlier this year, on May 15th instead of June 1st. In 2020, 36 outlooks were issued before the start of the season. Still, June 1st will remain the season start date, despite some consideration of lengthening the season.
The last six consecutive Atlantic hurricane seasons have started prior to the official start dates. Two of the seasons, including 2020, even produced two named storms prior to June 1st. If this trend continues, we may see a storm in late spring.
The average number of storms each year has been increasing.
Another possibility is that 2021 will fall into the recently-raised average. According to Spectrum News NY 1, the average number of full-season named storms in the Atlantic basin will increase this year, largely thanks to a busy decade of tropical activity in the basin.
Now, this does NOT mean that experts are predicting that 2021 will have more storms than 2020 or other recent years. Instead, we’re seeing the results of a new decade bringing new climatological averages. These are viewed on a 30-year basis so the average has now been updated based on the years 1991 through 2020.
The average number of storms for a season is now 14 with seven hurricanes when it used to be 12 with six hurricanes. The 2021 season may fall in close to the average, as previous years have, with a higher number of storms than what we could expect ten years ago.
Experts have yet to release full predictions for the 2021 hurricane season (we just know the storm names!), but the first formal Atlantic season forecast for 2021 is expected on April 8th with NOAA releasing predictions in May.
How will these predictions affect your Disney trip?
Just because we may see an early storm and a dozen and several events throughout the season does not mean that your Disney trip will be any more affected than usual. In fact, Orlando is often outside of storm paths or occasionally only falling into the outskirts of storms.
Still, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be prepared for a potential interruption to your Disney vacation due to a hurricane! Interestingly, Disney World is actually a very safe place to be during a hurricane since the buildings are built to withstand high winds. In the past, the resort has sustained minor damage during storms.
But the Disney parks WILL close in the instance that a big storm is headed in the direction of Orlando. So, hurricane season can definitely have an effect on the happiest place on Earth. If one of those storms happens to be a big one that swings towards Orlando, you might see the parks close during your trip and, as we’ve seen above, that could happen as early as May.
Even if a storm doesn’t impact Disney World directly this year, hurricane season means BIG rain for Florida. If you do have a trip planned, make sure you gear up for rain and storms. Typically, the worst of it happens from August through September. We’re not kidding when we say we can see a storm or two almost every day!
We check in every single week with a forecast on Disney World weather so you can always stay tuned to DFB for updates. Plus, we’ve got you covered with ALL the tips to planning for hurricane season trips to Disney World.
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Headed to Disney World during storm season? Tell us in the comments!