Disney Chairman Bob Iger recently expressed his expectations for reopened Disney parks, spurring Wall Street to make their own predictions.
Disneyland Main Entrance
With the Disney parks currently closed, executives and analysts are looking to the potentially very different future of the parks. Even as Iger began to suggest measures that could be taken to make guests feel safe, Wells Fargo analysts are predicting that the Disney parks may not return to their pre-closure attendance levels for two years.
According to Variety, Wells Fargo downgraded Disney’s stock as analysts noted that the parks could take 24 months to normalize. Analyst Steven Cahall believes that Disney parks will not fully be able to recover until testing and vaccines for the current health crisis are made easily accessible.
Cinderella Castle
Cahall predicts “zero park attendance” for the back half of fiscal 2020. Disney’s fiscal year ends around September, which means that analysts are predicting that closures could last until then.
Beyond that, the forecast shows that the parks will operate with only 50% capacity (whether due to safety measures or a drop in demand) all the way through fiscal 2021.
An Empty BoardWalk Resort
Analysts say that the factors that are likely to improve the feelings of safety around going to Disney World include the parks significantly limiting capacity, the proliferation of a vaccine, or more testing so those with immunity and antibodies feel comfortable.
We Asked Our Readers When They’d Feel Comfortable Going Back To Disney World. Click Here To See What They Said.
Disney California Adventure Main Entrance – Closed due to Coronavirus
Cahall acknowledges that the healthcare community is hard at work, but that a vaccine may not be widely-distributed in the next 12 months. “As such,” he says, “our attendance forecasts are a best guess with a precipitous decline followed by a ~12-month recovery.” This period of recovery explains the two-year prediction.
Sleeping Beauty Castle
It remains to be seen how Disney will handle the reopenings and when reopenings will be possible. For now, the “unique and severe” downturn for the Disney parks financially is the norm, and Disney stock may see consequences.
To read what Disney Chairman Bob Iger said about the parks reopening, click here!
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What do you think of this prediction? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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Thanks for sharing this very insightful, albeit sobering, article. Between concerns over safety and the financial consequences for so many potential guests around the world, Covid-19 will have severe and long lasting consequences for Disney and the entire tourism industry.
After 911, Disney suffered from low attendance for a few months. By spring all was back to normal. No-one died from the virus after being at Disney and fans of Disney have taken notes on that. All the deaths are from people that traveled to Italy, China or on some cruise and brought it back with them. People will be looking for a safe magical place to forget this horrible time. Just like a hurricane wipes out a coastal town, within a year people are looking to build and move there. Human mind is good at pushing bad experiences out of our head
I see the 5 min test taken at resort/parks to confirm you don’t have it activates your magic band/cards to enter/use Disney facilities. Or, confirmed vaccine given to both fly and basically prove you are clear and not a risk to any facility/airplane. Added to your drivers license/passport stamped, whatever to prove you are vaccinated and not a transmitter. SAD
I am hoping to still come in November it’s my 50th bday and we had planned a bucket list trip. I am hopeful we can still go although I expect it to be very different as we all adjust to our new normal
Stephen Cahill is always wrong about Disney Co. He only gets air time because he is so willing to bash Disney’s earning potential. By October 2021, WDW 50th, Disney World will be back to record attendance. The average person’s concern with Covid19 is radically different then the media’s portrayal.
There’s a typo in the analyst’s name on the DFB post, his name is spelled Steven Cahall. He has a mixed track record but the market seems to share his concerns in terms of DIS share price over the past month.
Attendance does not necessarily equate to revenue. During the recession in the late 2000’s/early 2010’s, the Disney parks still had fairly high numbers of visitors. But this was due to extreme discounts on room, meal and ticket packages, and overall revenue from the parks was bad for years.
I agree that the average person is not as paranoid about Covid-19 as the media seems to portray, but many people will have financial consequences. The financial problems/possible recession will be a much bigger deal than people’s fears in terms of Disney trips not taking place. But even for those with the funds to travel there, they may have that one paranoid family member or some other logistical issue that causes problems.
So while 2021 may have record attendance, and the average person may not be too scared to go to Disney parks, I do think there are serious reasons to have concerns over the parks’ revenue for the next few years.
I am hoping that Disney world we be open by September it’s my birthday gift from my husband
I have a holiday booked in August, if Disney World only partially opens or lots of attractions are closed, will they offer a refund? is it reasonable to expect a minimum amount of attractions for the money paid?
First off, who can trust Wells Fargo analyst after all poor business decisions that company has made. I agree with another commenter that Disney will be back to full steam about 3-5 months after opening. But then again, I am brainwashed by Disney and assume that there is a “Great big beautiful tomorrow, shining at the end of every day.”
I would be willing to bet the parks will be packed in October: people are going to want to reschedule the trips they missed and want to go somewhere happy after being miserable for months. I suspect people will just be more sanitary than normal and most people will be wearing gloves/ masks.
This whole thing isn’t stopping our plans at all. We will still be going as long as the parks themselves are open.
Correct grammar = normality. “Return to normalcy” was a phrase literally invented by President Warran G. Harding. It’s not really a word or phrase or something on would want to invoke in a crisis. “Normality” is correct grammar. And yes, openings will be longer than people anticipate, but soft openings will buffer that in my personal opinion.
Rockman said “No-one died from the virus after being at Disney and fans of Disney have taken notes on that. All the deaths are from people that traveled to Italy, China or on some cruise and brought it back with them.”
Sorry, but that is 100% not true. The majority of cases here are not from travel, but from community acquired infections. I am a nurse, and of the many deaths we have had in this country, most are from people who got it right here in the US from other people who did not travel anywhere. It is true that travel is what brought it here, but anyone can die regardless of where it was contracted. All the people who are dying every day in this country did not travel anywhere except maybe to their local grocery store. And no one knows if anyone who has been to Disney did not get sick and die. In fact, I find it impossible that there are not Disney guests who are or were sick or maybe even died considering all the people who go to Disney and how long it took for them to close. Everyone needs to please be careful and not believe false rumors that only travel related cases die.
We canceled our trip from Toronto to Disney World this September and will be back strong in 2021. But only if people stay home now. We in Canada, are following the medical advice but see too many States were it is business as usual, i. e. Home Depots open in Fort Pierce. Please, follow the medical advice and not the wishes of your President and stay home and safe so we can all enjoy Disney sooner rather than later.
Thank you for your wise words CeCe and Jim and to CeCe for your heroic work as a nurse.
No one knows what’s going to happen. You can’t get a fast pass for a tier 1 ride 60 days out from today. What’s that say, low crowds? No. Everything is speculation until we see what happens, period.
As bad as it sounds, we may see a less traveled Disney environment for all in the next year or two. The crowds were getting out of control, hours waiting in lines for attractions and restaurants were not the best of times at “The World”. I can remember the days of no lines in December for either and maybe the lower attendance will improve the guest experience. I only wonder if FL resident annual passes will continue when park attendance falls. What would Walt do…? for all us traditional Disney fans. Prices rose too fast in the last 5 years as some think was a feudal attempt to reduce the crowds… which did not work. Oh well, slow down, and rebuild
Hi DFB gang! Thanks for all the great content! rockman, you somehow missed that a 34 yr old Cali resident unfortunately died from COVID-19 two weeks after returning from a trip where he visited WDW, and Universal. I totally agree with CeCe. It would be shocking, and a huge blessing, if more visiting WDW were not infected! I have been cancelling trips to WDW since February because of this virus. Jim-don’t listen to our president? ??? He’s the one who determines what he feels we should do as a nation, based on the CDC’s recommendations. Sadly, the state, county, and individual city, are allowed to determine what happens in their area, even if it goes against what’s suggested. Our lovely Fl governor Ron DeSantis decided to leave our beaches open statewide, as the spring breakers partied and spread the virus. Miami and Ft Lauderdale closed their beaches, and the spring breakers headed to Clearwater. He still did nothing!!! About a week later he finally gave in-way too late! Living in S Fl, a bustling area, I’ve witnessed time and time again how my fellow citizens are greatly contributing to the spread by not following the guidelines. I’ve even witnessed some laugh it off, or even be nasty towards others whom are following the rules. We knew the virus was bound to spread, but it’s worse thanks to mankind! How many still traveled or went out after being tested waiting for the results, or even knowing they were positive? As far as our president goes, maybe you’re referring to him hoping things could reopen this month? Silly Trump, actually believing that we as a nation would do everything in our power to curb the spread-lol! Too bad there are so many lacking common sense to do so, and some that apparently have a death wish, and don’t care who they take down with them! We all need to do our part to stop the spread, try to support small businesses, and pray that life will return to some form of normalcy sooner vs later! By the end of this, I’m going to need at least a few weeks at WDW, and Give Kids the World Village(volunteering). I pray that the kids missing their special trips right now make it long enough to see them come to fruition. So many people were battling so many things in life prior to the Coronavirus. I hope they can all get by. May God bless us all and see us all through these scary, unchartered times! I’m always looking for the theme parks to be less crowded….would never have wanted it to be, or imagined it would be, because of something like this!🥺🙏🏻 Miss you Mickey!
I’m just going to say if Walt were still alive today there is no way it would take two years to get back to normal. He believed in doing the impossible and he did it on a regular basis.
It’s the message your president is spreading that concerns me. People all over the country come to Disney. Trump wants to get back to open up very soon. Prime Minister Trudeau is telling Canadians to expect this to go on through the summer but only if we all obey the rules. All governments need a consistent truthful message. Agree with you, we have to listen to our medical experts but need higher government officials to paint a realistic picture so we can get back to the house of mouse soon.
Sorry to be so political but within the last week the president has threatened to put military troops at the border, stopped a million needed and contracted masks before they arrived in Canada all the while we have doctors and nurses from Ontario taking care of people in Detroit hospitals. Canceling a Disney vacation due to delayed hip replacement surgery kinda put a topper on the week. Everyone stay safe and we’ll see ya soon at the Haunted Mansion. There’s always room for one more.
Katherine, that’s awesome! I am optimistic that the parks will be open by then and that you’ll have a great time.
On a different note, I understand people getting frustrated by what they see as politics but there really has never been a situation like this before and the consequences of this will be felt for years to come. I don’t think anyone from any country/political persuasion has any solution which is universally accepted.
Jim-Nice HM reference! While some may not appreciate politics talk on a Disney based blog(like there aren’t politics involved w/the mouse😉) I for one found it refreshing to be able to give our opinions(differing or not) without it turning ugly. Unfortunately, that’s typically what seems to occur these days. I certainly can say that Trump was overly optimistic to think we could get back to business so quickly. He stopped singing that tune though well over a week ago. His new time frame points toward the summer at the very earliest, and that’s only if we as a nation really buckle down! I was unaware that masks were stopped. I’m very sorry to hear that. Do you know if these were 3M made masks? Weeks ago I was watching every bit of news, but it’s grown mentally exhausting, so I check the stats daily, and watch the briefing every few days. Due to this, I miss some things. I understand your frustrations, and sorry to hear about your delayed surgery. I’m frustrated myself with the way people are all over the place with their feelings on the president and the virus these last months….he shouldn’t have closed to China-xenophobic, we can’t close our state, he’s not doing enough etc. I don’t think anyone would be doing a perfect job navigating a virtually unknown, horrific enemy. It’s basically a guessing game that gets a little less difficult, as more data is shared from around the world, while our scientists work feverishly here for a better, long term answer. Not going to WDW is really the least of our problems right now…..but I still would like to be there!🤣 Wishing you a successful surgery when you are able to have it, and hope you can visit Disney sooner than later because there’s a great big beautiful tomorrow, shining at the end of every day!We just have to hold on until then! Plus, I think walking the parks would be great physical therapy!
P.S. A heartfelt thanks to all the Canadian doctors and nurses sacrificing themselves to help their North American counterparts!!!
Disneydamsil thank you on your most spectacular post.it is much appreciated. And I agree to what you say.let get through this pandemic crisis and nurse this country and the world back to good health before anything else…
I Iive practiculy almost down the street. From WDW.and it is practiculy a ghost town around here.very eerie and weird and not used to it..in order for everything to get back to the new. Norm everyone need to do their part to beat this virus by listing to the medical professions and the CDC .and if everyone does that. And every thing in the clear..the gate will open at the Disney parks with a open welcome back from Mickey.minnie.Donald duck.Goofy and all the rest of the Disney family.. Peace to all be safe…and see you all real soon.
I think people will return as soon as they are able. I live in the UK and trips to Disney are once in a lifetime. We spend years and years planning and saving. We will follow government advice but i guarantee the moment it is safe people will go back. As a Healthcare worker myself, in the UK, its clear that people need the hope and excitement of planning a Disney trip. I know i am with mine, i will be travelling in January of 2021, subject to the world and Disney are back to some for of normality. I booked my trip after the loss of my dad last Christmas, its fair to say as long as it is safe, i will be there. As i am sure many others will be to.
Disney damsel. Thanks for the kind words. Yes, they were from 3M. Which, ironically, are manufactured from raw materials that Canada ships to the U. S. Back in January when this first appeared in China, Canada shipped 16 tones of masks and ventilaters to help out and stop the progress. China is now shipping back some ventilaters but we do require new mask. Also, love the reference to my favourite ride, Carosel of Progress. Thanks and stay safe.
Apparently someone didn’t like my terminology and my earlier post got removed. (no curse words were used) Hopefully the following sentence is acceptable.
I will never get the vaccine.
TGrey-you flatter me!😊 I couldn’t imagine living in the Disney area, and seeing hardly anyone around. Eerie is definitely a fitting word, and I would think rather unsettling as well. I-4, Vineland, I Drive, I-92, Osceola…driving on these roads with so few others(w/o it being 2am), along with all the empty restaurants and store parking lots, would make me feel like I was in another dimension! I practically feel that way at home already in S. Fl! Who thought we’d see the day when we would be sanitizing goods delivered to our home??? I greatly anticipate the forthcoming day you speak of, so much so, that I won’t complain if it’s as crowded as the 4th of July(or it even could actually be🤔)and as hot! Instead I’ll stand back, soak it all in, and revel at the fact that we as a great nation, and world, made it through this devastating pandemic. God forbid something like this happens again in our time, I think society as a whole will be much better prepared, and act appropriately much faster than this time around! It’s a small world, after all! Sorry, I couldn’t help myself!
If y’all haven’t already, check out some of the videos online of people at home recreating their disney day or a specific ride. There are some really good ones, but I found them all enjoyable because of the thought, time, and fun that went into them.😆
Quite a few bloggers on YouTube have done videos of drives around the main tourist areas in Central Florida (around Disney World, I-Drive, FL-192, SeaWorld area) and you can see just how empty it is. Considering that it should be Spring Break time it is extra shocking. I was there around Spring Break time two years and ago and I can’t believe the difference. Honestly some of the areas would normally be busier off-season at midnight. Lots of similar videos from other busy areas around the world show just what an impact the stay-at-home orders are having. It’s a pain and many of us are getting bored, suffering financial consequences, etc. but hopefully we are saving lives and keeping people from getting sick.
To our friend from Canada who feels that Home Depot is not essential in some parts of the states it is. When you can’t find toilet paper or cleaning supplies in the supermarket or pharmacy Home Depot had it. Also being able to work on a small home project during all of this can really help with your mental health.